What Is This Tool?
HomerForge Edge is a disciplined HR prop scoring system built for PropEdge AI. It enforces a specific analytical hierarchy — the same one used by sharp prop bettors — to eliminate gut-feel decisions, enforce bet caps, and track closing line value (CLV) over time.
The only real success metric: CLV win rate after 5+ slates. Beating closing lines consistently = real edge, even during losing streaks. Track every pick. Never skip this step.
Two-Pass Workflow (10–12 min/slate)
Pass 1 — Paste & Parse (3–4 min)
1
Go to PropFinder HR Matchups
Select all text (Ctrl+A), copy (Ctrl+C).
2
Paste into Parse Tab, click Parse Slate
Auto-extracts every batter. Tier A/B/C assigned instantly. C players collapsed.
3
Review Tier A/B shortlist only
Sort by Barrel%, game, or EV. Ignore Tier C. Focus on amber (A) and blue (B) rows.
Pass 2 — Score Survivors (5–7 min)
4
Click player name on PropFinder
Get: Pull%, FB%, LD%, Launch Angle, pitch mix. These complete the tier and ranking score.
5
Click Load → on parse row
Pre-fills Scorer with all available data. Add Pull/FB/LD/LA manually, flip radio buttons.
6
Apply caps + log everything
Max 2 Tier A, 1 Tier B, 1 per game. Top scores win. Log every pick for CLV tracking.
What the Parser Extracts Automatically
| Data Point | Auto? | Notes |
|---|
| Barrel% (season) | ✅ AUTO | '25 Barrel% column |
| ISO | ✅ AUTO | ISO column in lineup row |
| Exit Velocity (season) | ✅ AUTO | '25 EV column |
| L15 Barrel% + EV | ✅ AUTO | Recent form signal |
| Batting hand (L/R/S) | ✅ AUTO | LHB / RHB / SHB |
| Pitcher HR/9 (by hitter hand) | ✅ AUTO | Matched from vsLHB/vsRHB split |
| Pitcher Barrel% allowed | ✅ AUTO | From pitcher split row |
| Platoon flag | ✅ AUTO | Inferred from which split is higher |
| Best odds available | ✅ AUTO | First odds listed per player |
| Lineup position | ✅ AUTO | Order in confirmed lineup |
| Temp, wind, roof | ✅ AUTO | Parsed from game header row |
| Pull% / FB% / LD% | ❌ CLICK | Click player name → Batted Ball tab |
| Launch Angle | ❌ CLICK | Click player name → Advanced tab |
| Pitch-type mix | ❌ CLICK | Click pitcher name → Pitch Mix tab |
| Park HR Factor | ❌ MANUAL | Check Baseball Savant or ESPN Park Factors |
⚠️ Pitcher names don't copy from PropFinder — known format limitation. Pitcher stats are matched to batters by position in the data block, not by name.
Tier System
| Tier | Barrel% | ISO | Additional | Max/Slate |
|---|
| A (Clean) | ≥11% | ≥.210 | Pull%≥43%, FB%≥38%, FB%-LD%≥4, EV≥90, LA 18–30° | 2 total |
| A (Volatile) | ≥12% | ≥.200 | EV≥90, LA 18–30° (Pull/FB forgiven) | 2 total |
| B (Solid) | 9–10.9% | ≥.185 | Most boxes met | 1 total |
| C (Pass) | <9% | — | Auto-eliminated | 0 |
0–8 Ranking Score
| Factor | Points | How to Determine |
|---|
| Best odds in tier | +2 | Longest price among all Tier A (or B) candidates on the slate |
| Pitch-type match | +2 | Pitcher throws hitter's best pitch ≥35% of time (check pitch mix on PropFinder) |
| Platoon advantage | +2 | LHB vs RHP or RHB vs LHP. Same hand = disadvantage (–1). Switch = neutral (0). |
| Park geometry | +1 | Pull-heavy hitter in short-porch park (Yankee Stadium, GABP, Citizens Bank, etc.) |
| Low public bias | +1 | Non-star, not heavily marketed. Stars at short odds = 0. |
Minimum to bet: Tier A ≥ 4/8. Tier B ≥ 5/8. Zero bets on a slate is a valid disciplined outcome — don't force it.
Hard Rules — Non-Negotiable
Bet Caps
• Max 2 Tier A bets/slate
• Max 1 Tier B bet/slate
• Max 1 bet per game (correlation kill)
• Odds imply <8% → auto-pass (≈ longer than +1150)
The 1-per-game rule is the most important discipline rule. Correlated variance within the same park/pitcher environment is the silent ROI leak. One player per game. Always.
Timing Rules
• Record morning line at open
• Recheck 30–60 min before first pitch
• Odds dropped = sharp money = full size
• Odds rose on star = public noise = reduce or pass
• Never bet a line that moved against you without knowing why
CLV Tracking
After each game, enter the closing line in the CLV Log tab. The tool calculates implied probability difference. Target: CLV win rate >55% after 20+ picks. Below that — review pitch-type reads and odds selection first. Those are the two most common leaks.
5-slate rule: Run exactly as-is for 5 slates. No additions, no overrides. Evaluate CLV — not win rate, not profit. CLV is the signal at low sample sizes.